You've heard the news. You cannot have missed it. None of it seems good. Yet, serious analysts and asset managers are as puzzled as the rest of us. That said, last week, Michael Cembalest at JP Morgan wrote, “Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied.” And of course, there's Einstein. He seemed to have a pretty good grasp of things.
With that, we fall back on classic, time-tested, simple observations for framing our personal finances. Simple beats complex (Occam's Razor). Use these to frame your own outlook. They are general statements and do not constitute specific, individual advice. Reach out to us if you'd like to discuss your household needs, goals, and aspirations.
1. Markets continuously match Expectations with Reality, for as far as its eye can see. This is often called "pricing in." When new information arrives, it's "priced in." Immediately. Thousands of AI-driven tools make it happen. "Pricing in" is what's happening now. Remember this when you might start thinking you know better than the market.
2. Volatility is not Risk. Risk is the permanent loss of capital, mainly through inflation and deflation. Volatility is fluctuation or what William Bernstein calls "shallow risk." Volatility is what sows the seeds for future results. Current levels of volatility have only occurred five other times since 1990 (CBOE Volatility Index at St. Louis Federal Reserve). All of them were Opportunities to sow the seeds for future gains.
3. Reversion to the mean was originally a biologic concept (Francis Galton). It's also become a law of economics and markets. Things go from one extreme to another and always revert toward the mean. See our Considerations post of February 13, 2023, here.
4. Two emotions drive investor sentiment: Fear and Greed.
The noisy looking chart below shows the entire history of the CNN Fear &
Greed Index through 2024. (We created it via a Perplexity AI query.)
The Index currently sits at 4, on a scale 0-100. It has been under 10 only seven other times in its 14 year history. Each time was a precursor to a significant market advance.
Cue Warren Buffett: Buy when others are fearful. Sell when others are greedy.
5. Bonds and inflation don't play well together. We saw that in 2021-22. Right now, there's a flee to the perceived safety of bonds. Except for short-term holdings, we're not fans. Our 5-year rule applies. Any money that you might use in the next five years belongs in a cash or fixed income place.
6. Sharp Down markets are often followed by sharp Up markets. Missing those sharp Up markets will permanently reduce your long-term investment results. (JP Morgan)
7. Down markets do not cause recessions, but all recessions are preceded by down markets. See our Considerations post of March 12, 2025, here.
8. Down markets are opportunities to welcome the Gift Horse. See our Considerations post of February 27, 2020, here.
This is where we're at folks. As noted above, we're here to have the necessary conversations you might need right now.
James Cosgrove, CFP, Plano, TX jim.cosgrove@verizon.net 972-489-0262
Jim Cosgrove, Partner, San Jose, CA jimcos42@gmail.com 408-674-6315
Evidence-based. Rules-driven. Policy-focused. | ||