It was 2:56am this morning. I had just read some updated information on stroke prevention. Get good sleep was a part of it! The phrase, "healthy, wealthy, and wise" ran through my head. I texted the article to the family.
Then I got to thinking about all the other people I know. People like you. Would they find commentary on health, wealth, and wisdom useful?
Then I realized that these Considerations have been focused on the wealth part. I thought we might make it better by including health and wisdom. So, starting here and now, each issue will include something on Health, Wealth, and Wisdom.
Let's roll.
Health
I mentioned the updated stroke prevention information. The emphasis is on regular screening for stroke risk factors like high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, and obesity. The guidelines also include lifestyle changes such as eating a nutritious diet, staying physically active, and getting healthy sleep.
If you're younger and the possibility of a stroke is not on your screen, it's still not too early to establish a healthy lifestyle. Small actions taken consistently over long periods of time can produce amazing results. It's like saving a little bit each payday. In 20 years you'll be astonished.
You can read the full article here.
Wealth
Goldman Sachs recently published a 37-page research piece suggesting that US stock market returns for the next 10 years are expected to be a paltry 3%. That's far below both recent and historical returns. They cite market concentration and high valuations as the main culprits.
Ben Carlson and Barry Ritholtz, both of Ritholtz Wealth Management, countered that 3% would imply a financial debacle of some kind. Like the stock market crash at the front end of the Great Depression, the stagflation of the 1970's, or the Great Financial Collapse (GFC) of 2007-08.
They contend (here and here) that while a financial debacle is always possible, the probability is low, and such a debacle is impossible to forecast ahead of time anyway.
We align with Ben and Barry on this.
Wisdom
Morgan Housel is one of our favorite up and coming writers. His two books, The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness (2020), and Same as Ever: A guide to what never changes (2023), will have long and useful lives. He also publishes in a blog at the Collaborative Fund.
In a recent post, he wrote of a Russian proverb that goes, “The past is more unpredictable than the future.”
It’s common for our memories of the past to become disconnected from how we actually felt at the time. Hence, there are "the good old days."
But we sanitize the past because we now know how the story ends. In retrospect, we think nothing was uncertain and there was nothing to worry about. In fact, our past selves had no idea how things would end up and we had a lot to worry about. Uncertainty dictates nearly everything in the current moment, but looking back we pretend it never existed.
The current moment that might feel risky and uncertain is often bursting with opportunity. The past isn't as good as you remember. The present isn’t as bad as you think. The future will be better than you anticipate.
Today happens to be election day. We'll begin remembering more of the past, assessing the present, and gauging the future.
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There you are. Feedback is the breakfast of champions (wisdom). Let us know what you think. Is this a good direction for us to take? Or should we just stick to wealth? If you like, feel free to forward this to your family and friends. And as usual, if there's something you'd like to talk about, here's our contact information.
Jim Cosgrove, Partner, San Jose, CA jimcos42@gmail.com 408-674-6315
Evidence-based. Rules-driven. Policy-focused.
