Sunday, January 26, 2020

SECURE Act

 Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement
 The SECURE Act of 2019

The SECURE Act was signed into to law in December, 2019, and became effective January 1, 2020.

The comments that follow refer to 401(k)'s and IRAs. In fact, all other retirement plans such as 403(b), 457, 401(a), ESOPs, Cash Balance plans, lump sums from defined benefit plans are included in the legislation.

Individuals
  • Participants in 401(k) and other defined-contribution plans (including traditional IRAs) can delay taking required minimum distributions until they reach the age of 72, rather than the prior 70.5.
  • Participants are permitted to continue contributing to traditional IRAs even after turning 70.5, which was previously prohibited. There is now no limitation on the maximum age to contribute to an IRA as long as you have earned income.
  • Graduate students are permitted to treat stipends and non-tuition fellowship payments as compensation for the purposes of contributing to IRAs.
  • Parents can withdraw up to $5,000 from their individual 401(k), similar workplace retirement savings plan, or IRA for each new child in the year of birth without incurring the 10% penalty for taking an early distribution.
  • Employers may offer an annuity option as a part of their 401k. Employees who purchase an annuity in their 401(k) can move their annuity to another 401(k) plan at a different employer or to an IRA without paying surrender charges or other penalty fees. 
  • Heads up: Annuities in a retirement plan can be a good news/bad news story. It creates the framework for people to think about an income stream rather than just a pile of money. But annuities have a well-deserved reputation for being costly and inefficient.
  • Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCD) from an IRA remain at age 70 ½. This creates a short window where IRA distributions may qualify as charitable contributions, but not as RMDs. 
529 Plans  
  • Savers in 529 plans may use up to $10,000 to pay off student loans. That's a lifetime max per student.
  • Plans can now also be used to pay for the costs of apprenticeship programs.

Inherited IRAs
In the past, non-spouse beneficiaries (usually children or grandchildren) who inherited an IRA could "stretch" payouts from the IRA over their lifetime.

The SECURE Act now requires that disbursements occur within 10 years of the original account holder's death. The effect of this is that it shortens the time in which tax-advantaged accounts can grow and will increase the taxable income of beneficiaries during the ten-year period. This new 10-year rule applies to Roth as well as traditional IRAs even though Roth's are not taxable.

IRAs inherited prior to 2020 are exempt from these new provisions.

The change will not affect these eligible beneficiaries (EBs): (1) the surviving spouse of the deceased owner, (2) a minor child of the deceased owner, (3) a beneficiary who is less than 10 years younger than the deceased owner, or (4) a chronically-ill individual (per definition).

Small Employers
Unrelated small employers can join together to establish a shared 401(k) plan known as a Multiple Employer Plan (MEP). This allows small businesses to pool resources and reduces the costs of establishing a plan.

MEPs existed prior to the SECURE Act, but under the previous law they were required to be related in some way (e.g. through geography or through membership in a common industry or trade association). The SECURE Act waived this requirement.

The law also shields employers who join a MEP from liability for potential misconduct perpetrated by other employers who are in the same plan. In addition, the federal tax credit for defraying plan startup costs is increased from $500 to up to $5,000, and provides an additional $500 tax credit for plans that automatically enroll new hires.

Another provision requires employers to cover long-term, part-time workers starting in 2021. "Long-term, part-time" workers are defined as workers at least 21 years of age who have completed at least 500 hours of service each year for 3 consecutive years.

Employers who offer annuities as part of their defined-contribution retirement plans are shielded from liability under a new safe-harbor provision even if the insurance company selling the annuity commits fraud or collapses.

These summaries were derived from many sources believed to be accurate, reliable, and complete. However, no guarantees can be made in that regard. The IRS routinely publishes "letters" that explain and clarify policy details. They've already done one, here. Please contact us, your tax advisors, or legal counsel if you have any questions.




Friday, December 6, 2019

CONSIDERATIONS, December, 2019


Considerations, December, 2019

A Decadal Change

It’s more than that time of the year again. The New Year in front of us is one of those infrequent decadal turns: 2020. So, it’s an opportune moment to sit back, breathe deeply, and take a longer view.

A clear-headed, open-hearted, carefully examined, and historically relevant assessment would be ideal. But our attention spans seem increasingly short (except for Netflix binges). Multiple distractions abound. Your phone pings for your attention. Busy-ness and impatience seem quite the norm.

This exposes us to two biases: recency and confirmation. Recency bias means we overweight whatever is happening right now. Confirmation bias is when we quickly accept that which agrees with our pre-existing beliefs. Neither serve us well.

So, in the spirit of brevity-- because I know you have a lot of shopping to do-- here are the key take-aways for the next decade:

  > Every decade has its unique qualities and hallmarks. No decade looks quite like the last one. *
  > Expect the 2020’s to be volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. Be ready to adapt. *
  > Time-tested principles, evidence-based strategies, and discipline will carry you through. *     

This applies everywhere-- to our physicality, relationships, and “the world out there”—as well as to our personal finances.

*All the reference resources that led me to this are listed below.

Now, recall what you’ve done, how you’ve changed, and what you’ve believed over the course of the last ten years. No matter what your current age is, we’re all ten years older. Think back ten years and just recall your high (or low) points. What inspired you? What gave you hope? What disappointed?

Maybe you had just graduated college. Or had become established in a career. Or changed careers. Or got married. Or divorced. Or got a diagnosis. Or retired. It all matters in the arc of your life.

The next ten years will bring new challenges and changes. So, here’s a question to ponder during this last month of the 2010’s:

What can I do now-- that my future self or family will thank me for-- ten years from now?

As Sam Altman wrote, “The days are long and the decades are short.”

May you have a Joyful Holiday Season and Flourish in the New Year!


Reference resources are in alphabetic order by title.


All-Time Highs Are Both Scary and Normal
Every decade except the 30’s and 40’s has had new all-time highs. Chances are, the 2020’s will too.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/11/all-time-highs-are-both-scary-normal/

Avoid News: Towards a Healthy News Diet
This is the antidote to news. It’s 11 pages and you probably won’t be able to skim it. Once you’ve weaned yourself from “the news,” you’ll have time for in-depth, long-form reflection.
https://www.gwern.net/docs/culture/2010-dobelli.pdf

Bull Markets Last Much Longer than You ThinkIt’s quite unrealistic to think we can draw conclusions about a future based on the recent past.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/12/bull-markets-last-much-longer-than-you-think/

Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

This is a graphical depiction of annual returns for various asset classes, ranked from best to worst from 1999-2018. The key point is that no one asset class consistently dominates or lags. Strategic diversity matters.
https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Classic-Periodic-Table-2019.pdf

Common Plots of Economic History
There are five of them.
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/common-plots-of-economic-history/

Dow by Decade
A table shows that only two decades out of the last 12 have had a negative return. In retrospect, those two decades were “back up the truck” buying opportunities. Really good decades, like we’ve just had, are often followed by mediocre ones. Go figure.
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2019/11/dow-by-decade.html

Global Debt
Global debt has grown by nearly 5% annually for at least the past 20 years, outpacing global GDP. When does this become unsustainable? No one knows.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/15/global-debt-surged-to-a-record-250-trillion-in-the-first-half-of-2019-led-by-the-us-and-china.html

Paradigm Shift
This long (45 page) essay by Ray Dalio is a key reference for this Considerations. Dalio challenges us to identify the paradigm we’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how a paradigm shift might transpire when that which is unsustainable stops.

Further, he reminds us that theories about how to invest usually explain how the past few years made sense. These backward-looking theories typically were strongest at the end of a period and proved to be terrible guides for the future. The worst thing one can do is build a portfolio based on what worked well over the last 10 years.
https://economicprinciples.org/downloads/Paradigm-Shifts.pdf

Silicon Valley Economy
In the last decade, Silicon Valley has outpaced every other major region in gross domestic product growth. It’s become one of the most expensive places to live. A “gold rush.” What’s next?
https://sanjosespotlight.com/silicon-valley-economy-frothy-and-facing-headwinds-says-market-expert/
San Jose is now one of the most “unequal” cities in America.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/02/upshot/wealth-poverty-divide-american-cities.html

Stock Market Returns Across Decades
Markets rarely match up well with fundamentals. The 1940s saw exceptional earnings growth combined with a 5% dividend yield but investors were still scarred from the Great Depression. Massive repricing occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. The 2000s saw corrections in terms of both fundamentals and sentiment. Dividend yields are lower now than they were in the past, and earnings growth is unsustainable at current rates. Exceptional recent growth contributes to the controversy surrounding equality, mobility, and opportunity. Returns should be lower over the next decade, but no one can predict whether that will be today, tomorrow, or 10 years from now. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/12/where-have-all-the-stock-market-returns-come-from-this-decade/

“The days are long but the decades are short.”
Sam Altman, age 34, re-discovers what those of us with a few more years under our belt have learned. The kids are OK.
https://blog.samaltman.com/the-days-are-long-but-the-decades-are-short

Three Big Things: The Most Important Forces Shaping the World
Demographics, inequality, and access to information changes everything.
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/three-big-things-the-most-important-forces-shaping-the-world/

Visual History of the S&P500
This is a great illustration of how “the top companies” come and go. Over any ten-year period, about half of the Top 10 companies on the S&P500 change.
https://etfdb.com/history-of-the-s-and-p-500/#2009
Now take a look at the current list and ask, who will still be here ten years from now?
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500

VUCA 2.0: Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous
Those are the key words people at the Harvard Business School are using to describe the world for future business leaders.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/hbsworkingknowledge/2017/02/17/vuca-2-0-a-strategy-for-steady-leadership-in-an-unsteady-world/#371c633613d8