What We're Thinking: Your Best Strategy

  

“What does 2026 hold?”
“Will the stock market crash?”
“What will happen with interest rates and inflation?”
“Should I buy gold or Bitcoin, or both?”
"Is AI in a bubble?"
“What are the big questions facing the markets in 2026?”
“How should we deal with what’s going on in Washington?”
“Will Social Security go away?”

Sorry. We don’t have answers to those questions. Why? Because some version of them show up every year as a response to a demand and hunger for certainty. Yet, the documented research on forecast reliability concludes that it's pretty much a coin toss. The truth is, the world is uncertain, and personal finance is largely an exercise in managing uncertainty.  

With that out of the way, let's remember what we control. We can't control or accurately answer any of the questions above. But we can control things like...

· How we allocate financial assets. This shapes over 90% of portfolio outcomes.
· How much media we consume and what kind. This blog post is a rare slice of unconflicted media.
· Where we spend money, especially on discretionary choices.
· How much money we spend. Many people can actually spend more than they think.
· Our strategies.

Your Best Strategy

“The best long-term strategy is to stick with your long-term strategy."
Elisbetta Basilico

Your best strategy is the one you have. If you’ve been working with us for a while, you know that everything is based on your goals, your tolerance for volatility, your tax profile, and the feel of your day-to-day life. 

 

So, the answers to the questions that typically come up about next year or "the future" are already embedded in your strategy. That’s the best place to work. Here are a few ways to sustain a robust strategy.

1. Keep it simple! A simple strategy is one you could explain to a 10-year old in less than 25 words. Complexity leads to distractions, loss of focus, blurred vision, and conflicted actions.

2. Be adaptable. The world can change quickly. A flexible strategy will allow you to bend but not break, adapt to challenges, and spot new opportunities. The good news is that globally diversified portfolios do this. They automatically catch the cream rising to the top. If you own a total stock market index fund, you’ve actually owned Nvidia for 25 years.

3. Speculate at the edges. If an exciting idea or possibility calls to you, try it out in a small way. Failures won’t be fatal and you can always go deeper. This could also satisfy the need to “do something” or neutralize FOMO.

4. Stay focused. Distractions abound. Know the job-to-be-done, the problem to be solved, the goal to be achieved. Dial down notifications and breaking news.

5. Be action-oriented. Great strategies lay out a clear path and steps to take. Otherwise, a plan just sits on a shelf. This doesn’t mean to always be doing something. It does mean that when something needs to get done, it gets done. Let us know how we can help.

                                                                      Best Wishes for a Joyful Holiday Season
                                                                        And Contentment in the New Year 

 James Cosgrove, CFP, Plano, TX jim.cosgrove@verizon.net 972-489-0262
Jim Cosgrove, Partner, San Jose, CA jimcos42@gmail.com 408-674-6315

Evidence-based. Rules-driven. Policy-focused.