Back in the Spring of 1991, I joined IBM's Quarter Century Club marking 25 service years. Now, in the Spring of 2026, I'm celebrating another Quarter Century as an independent, freelance financial advisor. Two quarter centuries in one lifetime. Who knew?
Doing what I'm drawn to do, I pulled together some financial stats from the last 25 years. Here's what happened on an average annualized basis:
Portfolios of 40% stocks and 60% bonds 4.1%
Bay Area residential real estate 4.7%
Portfolios of 50% stocks and 50% bonds 5.2%
Portfolios of 60% stocks and 40% bonds 6.3%
Portfolios of 80% stocks and 40% bonds 8.4%
Now, zooming in for the Main Event.
We're a bit more than halfway through this decade and there have been four "disruptions" no one predicted. COVID in 2020-21, 9% inflation in 2022, a Tariff Tantrum in 2025, and now a "military operation."
Keep this in mind the next time hear an "expert" or "influencer" tell you what's about to happen and why you should do something now! Predictions are useful for eliminating things to worry about. What's not predicted is what seems to happen.Which leads to the next point: It's impossible to worry about unknown unknowns.
The table below highlights market data points we follow. Notice that none of them are personal or political. We don't try to rationalize personalities or politics with personal finance. That dog don't hunt.
| Mar 2020 | Oct 2022 | Apr 2025 | Mar 2026 | Notes | ||||||
| COVID | Inflation | Tariffs | Iran | |||||||
| Money market funds | 0.10% | 4.00% | 4.20% | 3.60% | 1 | |||||
| US Treasury 10-year bond yield | 0.80% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.30% | 2 | |||||
| Brent North Sea oil | $32 | $83 | $92 | $114 | 3 | |||||
| CNN Fear & Greed Index | 2 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 4 | |||||
| Peak VIX | 85 | 36 | 60 | 35 | 5 | |||||
| Balanced portfolios prev 12 months | -23% | -29% | -20% | -8% | 6 | |||||
| Balanced portfolios next 12 months | +42% | +18% | +26% | ? |
Notes:
1. Most banks are still paying .1%. The difference between that and 3.6% is how we're able to get free checking accounts.
2. This is the bond market key metric. The rate has fluctuated between 3.3% and 5.0% since 2022. As long as it stays under 5%, all's well. No predictions.
3. No one paid much attention to this until lately. Know that there's also a crude oil type called West Texas Intermediate. It's usually priced about 6% less than Brent. The sweet spot for oil is roughly between $45 and $90. Anything above $90, for any reason, puts pressure on global finances and discourages drillers.
4. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is a reliable short-term measure of financial market sentiment. Anything under 25 is Extreme Fear. As Warren Buffet has said, "Buy when people are fearful."
5. VIX is the Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index. It's another measure of sentiment widely used by professionals.
6. Balanced portfolios are the likes of Vanguard's LifeStrategy Moderate Growth (VSMGX), Fidelity's Balanced Fund (FBALX), and iShares 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF (AOR). Most investors actually have portfolios that are close to these.
So, that's where we are. A long time ago, I heard someone say, "Things are never as bad as they seem, or as good as they seem." If you'd like to chat about any of this, or even tell us we've got it all wrong, we'd love to hear it.
James Cosgrove, CFP, Plano, TX jim.cosgrove@verizon.net
972-489-0262
Jim Cosgrove, Partner, San Jose, CA jimcos42@gmail.com
408-674-6315
Evidence-based. Rules-driven. Policy-focused.
